Thursday, July 23, 2015

By The Numbers...

We went camping for a few days, a really nice spot.  One of the benefits was there was a wonderful one mile loop around the pond that was mostly shaded and gently rolling.  I had my last long one before the 100 miler and decided to make it a dual purpose workout.  I knew I wanted to do somewhere between 40-60K.  I did the first 40K at closer to a 50K training pace, around 6:10 per K pace.  I almost decided to stop there, but as I was waiting for Dave to get to the campground I thought I'd just slow down and walk for a bit.  So I did about 1.5 miles at around 15-16 minute mile pace while I ate some food.  Then I picked it up a bit.  My legs didn't feel quite so bad after that little break.  So I started picking it back up.  I ended up finishing the 60K in 6:44 and feeling really darned good for such a long walk.   What I find though during these super long walks is I have a lot of time to spend in my own head.  Sure, I got to look at the beautiful scenery, and said hi to the deer that were chilling around the pond, but 7 hours is a long time.  A lot of what I thought about had to do with numbers...

Whenever I travel internationally I love to talk to other athletes to see what kind of training they do.  I have found that, in general, people who train for 20K will generally do a 25K as their long walk.  Some do 18K, some up to 30K, but the average seems to be about 25K.  That is 125% of their race distance.  I've found that average weekly mileage tends to be between 80-120K.  That's 4 - 6 times their race distance in a week.

In general, people who train for 50K tend to do 40K as their long walk.  Again, some do 35K, a few do 45K, so 40 seems like a good average.  That's 80% of their race distance.  Average weekly mileage seems to be between 150 and 200K per week.  That's 2 - 3 times race distance in one week.

When it comes to ultra events I have a lot less data.  One ultra expert I've talked with did a 4-6 hour walk once a week and a few times would do 6-8 hours.  That would be approximately 32 - 48K for the shorter day and maybe about 48- 54K for the longer walks.  That is less than 50% of race distance.  One guy did a 12 hour race as part of his training.  I've been told that outside a long one, my regular training distance per week would be enough.  So that's maybe 1 to 1.5 times race distance in one week.  One very elite endurance walker, who has done some amazing 100 milers only trains 80K per week!

Look at those numbers.  A lot of athletes feel for 20K they have to be able to do a significant amount more than their race distance to be successful.  50K walkers not as much, but still are doing well over race distance.  Now we get to ultra distances.  The distance that just wears and tears on your body.  But I have yet to hear of anyone doing a 130K training walk (80% of 160K).  I haven't heard of anyone doing 320 - 480K per week (2-3 times race distance in a week).   But, by the numbers, would you think you'd want to be training that much?  Wouldn't you want that peace of mind?  Wouldn't you want to know that you could handle it? 

There's something huge missing from the equation.  Any ideas what it is?  There's pacing, nutrition, "little" things like that, but I think there's something huge, something that is many, many times more important than those things.  I think that missing link is the mental aspect of the race.   What else could it be?  Look again at those numbers, you can't be sure you're going to succeed based on the quantity of your training you wouldn't have much confidence.  "They" always say that sports are 90% mental.  I now really believe that they were talking about ultra events when "they" said that.

Two years ago Dave and I went to the Isle of Man to give the 100 miler a go.  I knew I could do it.  I had confidence that I could do it.  I had no reason to have said confidence.  I had never raced over a 50K, I was coming off my discus-to-the-knee injury and my longest training walk was 25K.  I knew nothing about nutrition, and I went out WAY too fast.  I didn't make the 100 miles, but I did make it 76.  I only stopped because I could no longer flex or point my foot.  Mentally I was still ready to keep going.  I "shouldn't" have even been able to go that far.  But I believed I could and that belief got me 76 miles.

Now we come to this year.  I'm sooooooo much more prepared.  I've done three walks at 60K.  I've done I think 5 or 6 walks around 40K.  I've done 4 weeks (not in a row) over 200K of training.  I've worked on my eating and am comfortable with eating during the race.  I smartened up about pace and will not go out as fast as I did last time.  Everything points to me being super ready and should be tons more confident than last time.  But instead I've spent time looking at those numbers.  And those numbers worry me.  My longest walk was only 37% of my race distance.  I can't imagine only walking 7K as my longest walk for a 20K.  Or 19K as my longest walk for a 50K. 

My goal for the next three weeks is to find that confidence I had last year.  I know I'm a good endurance walker.  I know I'm strong.  I know I'm tough.  I know this year's 50K nationals I'm going to be in rip-roaring good shape.  I'm going to head to the Isle of Man and have fun.  I'm going to race smart, eat well, and make sure my shoes aren't tied too tight.  And we'll see what happens!

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